AusGroup's AUS215m order book disappoints analyst

It's less than 2 quarters' work.

According to OSK DMG, AusGroup reported a disappointing 3QFY13 results with a breakeven performance and a deteriorating order book.

Revenue fell 8% q-o-q and 24% y-o-y, while the EBITDA margin shrank to 4.3% from 8.1% in 2Q13. The bottom reversed from a AUD6.8m profit a year ago to a breakeven AUD0.1m this quarter.

Here's more from OSK DMG:

Management stated that the poorer margins are also due to variation orders in addition to weaker Integrated Services performance.

AUD215m order book is less than two quarters’ work. At current run rates, AusGroup will run out of work within the year. The contract wins and better margins that were supposed to boost 3Q13 and 4Q13 results failed to materialise, and the downward march of the order book presents a dire outlook in the near term.

Slash FY13F/14F estimates by 54%/48%. With this quarter’s breakeven performance in sharp contrast against management guidance, we slash FY13F estimates by 54%. Core earnings are likely to stay weak through FY14 unless a large quantum of orders is won at once. Successful claims of the variation orders present upside to our FY14F estimates, while provisions on the Karara Mining receivables is the main downside risk.

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